MI aluminium stocks analysis: Still near highs while cancellations slow

Monday brought another small net decline in the headline figure with subdued draws just outpacing even slower arrivals. LME-registered tonnage has fallen in four of the last five reporting days but to put that into perspective it is still just a couple of thousand tonnes shy of the recent year’s high of 837,250t. Moreover, while draws remain like this it would take very little in the way of a pick-up in warranting activity to turn things around.

Cancellations were again slow yesterday and the ratio of cancelled tonnage slipped a little further to 2.5%. In outright tonnage terms, we’re not quite at the ultra-low levels seen around the middle of April—the lowest point was 14,700t on Apr 19—but we’re not going to see any surprises on the “out” side until more metal is cancelled.