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MI aluminium stocks analysis: LME cancelled tonnage falls again

Wednesday, May 23, 2007
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LME draws were Monday slightly flattered by the movement of 1,000t of ingot at Antwerp. This metal has been sitting in the cancelled departure lounge since Apr 24 and its bulk movement exhausts cancelled tonnage at the Belgian location.

That’s symptomatic of the system as a whole with a solid round of draws not being compensated for by the cancellations at Singapore and Johor.

The result is a slide in the cancelled tonnage figure to close to this year’s low of 14,700t recorded on April 19. It is clear that what is in the cancelled category is not going to support too many draws of Monday’s size and the most likely development is a significant slowdown in draw rates such as we saw in the second half of April.

Metal is still flowing into the LME’s US locations at a brisk pace in stark contrast to the NYMEX, where stocks are still falling. Warranted stocks Monday fell by 156 tons to 12,303 tons (11,161 metric) thanks to draws at Owensboro. There was a slight build in off-warrant pieces to 59,515 in the system as a whole but these are still showing a big year-to-date decline of 75,183.

 

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