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MI aluminium stocks analysis: Shanghai stocks slide further

Saturday, May 26, 2007
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Stocks of aluminium registered with the Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE) fell by 3,311t to 29,284t in the week to Thursday.

SHFE stocks have fallen every week since the middle of March but are still showing a 10,702t (Western) year-to-date increase after a very strong build around the Lunar New Year holidays at the end of February.

That said, the fact that stocks haven’t risen at a time of still-roaring domestic production growth and low exports of primary metal attests to strong apparent consumption in China, albeit by players with one eye on the export tax differentials (see our main item above).

LME stocks activity remains extremely subdued with the balance marginally favouring the “out” side yesterday. The cancellation of a total 4,600t promises a slight pick-up in draw activity but it will be limited unless more cancellations come through in bigger numbers.

Thursday brought no movement in the NYMEX warranted stocks total but a further reduction in the off-warrant number of pieces in the system to 42,811—now down by 91,887 since the start of January.

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