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MI aluminium stocks analysis: LME a bit directionless

Wednesday, May 30, 2007
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Last week was a “down” week for LME stocks with a net decline of 5,300t thanks to low arrivals and steady draws.

However, the headline figure is a bit directionless right now and we’re still within sight of the recent high at 837,250t recorded on May 4.

It wouldn’t take much in the way of a pick-up in arrival rates for the incipient downtrend to be halted. The draw rate is less than exciting right now, which is a function of the slide in cancelled tonnage to a very low 14,275t in the middle of last week.

Cancellations have perked up in the last couple of reporting days and totalled a respectable 9,000t for the full week. That said, however, cancelled tonnage remains low as does a ratio of cancelled tonnage at 2.3%.

NYMEX-warranted stocks rose by a net 6,796 tons to 19,255 tons (17,468 metric) last week thanks largely to heavy (6,997 tons) inflow of T-bar at Owensboro on Wednesday.

Off warrant stocks, by contrast, continue to decline. They ended Friday at 41,574 pieces, down by 93,124 pieces on the start of the year.

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