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MI aluminium stocks analysis: Waiting for Trieste

Friday, Jun 01, 2007
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It says a lot about the anaemic draw activity in the LME system that a pick-up in arrivals Wednesday to what is still a relatively modest 2,825t was enough to offset the previous three days’ falls in the headline figure.

A still very subdued draw rate reflects the fall in cancelled tonnage to low levels prior to Tuesday, when we got that mass (17,725t) cancellation at Trieste. That metal may take a couple of days to move and until it does, there is every indication that draws will continue to bump along at these somewhat reduced rates.

The amount of cancelled tonnage in the system is a little misleading since if the tonnage at Trieste is deducted it amounts to no more than a highly modest 18,850t.

As such, until Trieste springs into life, the headline figure will remain very sensitive to the rate of arrival.

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