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MI aluminium stocks analysis: Shanghai stocks still falling

Saturday, Jun 02, 2007
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Stocks of aluminium registered with the Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE) fell by 4,764t to 24,520t in the week to Thursday. That extends the current downtrend to eleven consecutive weeks, although the headline figure is still showing a small (Western) year-to-date increase of 5,938t, reflecting very fast build around the time of the Lunar New Year holidays in late February.

That said, the fact that stocks have fallen back to historically low levels, even while exports of primary metal remain highly subdued, points to extraordinary local consumption rates, even by China's standards.

The LME headline figure inched a little higher yesterday with modest inflow outpacing even more modest draws. The latter remain a function of low cancelled tonnage in the system everywhere but at Trieste, where Tuesday's mass cancellations (17,725t) have yet to move.

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