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MI aluminium stocks analysis: Shanghai stocks at fresh 2007 low

Saturday, Jun 16, 2007
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Stocks of primary aluminium registered with the Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE) fell by 1,337t to a fresh 2007 low of 24,352t in the week to Thursday.

Shanghai stocks are now just above their ultra-low levels around 18,000t seen in the closing stages of 2006.

Continued pressure on exchange stocks attests to extraordinarily strong demand in the country, given still fast-growing primary metal output (see our main item above). That demand is being fuelled both by domestic consumption growth and by the rush to export products ahead of expected changes to the country’s tax code. There has been no official announcement so far but there are a growing number of reports coming out of China that Beijing is poised to move on reducing export tax rebates on aluminium product to close the differential with the export duty on primary metal.

Meanwhile, the LME headline figure fell yesterday thanks to the combination of a slight slowdown in arrivals and a slight pick-up in draw rates. The latter may prove to be temporary since fresh cancellations have fallen sharply over Wednesday-Thursday with the result that the ratio of cancelled tonnage is sliding—now at 4.0%.

Thursday brought draws of DIN226 from Antwerp (60t of ingot) and from Rotterdam (60t of large sow). Draws have started to slow over the last couple of days as cancelled tonnage has sunk but the latter got a boost yesterday in the form of 400t of fresh cancellations at Singapore (all DIN226 ingot).

 

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