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MI aluminium stocks analysis: LME drifting lower

Tuesday, Jun 12, 2007
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LME-registered stocks of aluminium fell by 3,300t last week, reversing the previous week’s small 775t build. Arrivals dropped off to 3,400t—all at Singapore—from 6,150t the previous week, while draws remained steady, if unexciting.

We had expected some bigger movement at Trieste in Italy following the mass cancellation of all 17,725t of registered metal back on May 29. Although that metal started to move last week, it did so only in dribs and drabs—a cumulative weekly total of 725t—rather than in the mass exodus widely anticipated around the market.

Low cancelled tonnage everywhere but Trieste continues to cap “out” side movement in the system and although fresh cancellations perked up on Friday—bringing the weekly total to 6,675t—an overall ratio of cancelled tonnage at 4.2% is still low and lower still when the 17,000t of cancelled tonnage at Trieste is stripped out of the figure.

NYMEX-warranted stocks were unchanged last week at 19,255 tons (17,468 metric) but there was further attrition of off-warrant stocks, which now total 33,578 pieces, down by 101,120 pieces on the start of the year.

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