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MI aluminium stocks analysis: "Out" side activity accelerates

Tuesday, Jun 19, 2007
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LME-registered stocks of primary aluminium fell by a net 3,875t last week, following on from the previous week's 3,300t decline.

Inflow remained relatively subdued and largely confined to Singapore, which received 6,150t of metal. The only other locations to see inflow were New Orleans (625t) and Long Beach (500t).

Draws started off the week in equally subdued form but started accelerating over the second half, largely reflecting faster outflow at Rotterdam—down 2,725t on the week—and at Trieste—down by 2,150t.

The Italian location still holds the largest concentration of cancelled tonnage after the mass cancellation of 17,725t here on May 29. That metal looked set to trickle rather than flow off the board until draws moved up a gear on Friday itself, when 1,300t left. It still holds 14,850t of cancelled metal and if Friday's stronger pace of departure is maintained, this metal may boost draw rates over the coming week.

Rotterdam, by contrast, has seen cancelled tonnage fall to just 700t, suggesting it will become significantly less active.

Even with Friday's strong cancellations—featuring Detroit, note—total cancellations at 9,850t did little more than replace what left with the result that the overall ratio of cancellation was little changed on the week at 4.0%.

Relatively low cancelled tonnage is going to keep a lid on draw rates at just about every location other than Trieste.

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