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MI aluminium stocks analysis: Shanghai stocks down again

Saturday, Jun 23, 2007
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Stocks of primary aluminium registered with the Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE) fell by 1,920t to 22,432t in the week to Thursday.

SHFE stocks are still showing a small (Western) year-to-date net increase of 3,850t but the rapid build seen around the time of the Lunar New Year holidays in February has now been largely worked off and by historical standards local stocks are close to historic lows.

LME stocks, meanwhile, were somewhat directionless yesterday with both inflow and draws subdued.

Note that Bilbao received metal again yesterday, bringing the two-day inflow at this Spanish location to 1,200t.

At Trieste in Italy the draw rate has slowed back down to a crawl after showing signs of acceleration in the first part of this week. There are 13,000t of cancelled stocks here and at this pace it could be some time before they go off the board.

Fresh cancellations were minimal and the ratio of cancelled tonnage in the system eased further to 3.7%.

Thursday brought no activity in LME-registered stocks of alloy.

After Wednesday’s blip higher, the underlying downtrend in LME-registered NASAAC stocks resumed Thursday with solid draws from Baltimore (180t) and Detroit (180t). Baltimore also saw 240t of fresh cancellations—220t of ingot and 20t of T-bar—topping up an already full cancelled pipeline.

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