LME-registered stocks of aluminium continued to creep higher Monday on a combination of steady inflow and subdued draws.
It’s worth remembering that the headline figure is only around 8,000t short of its recent early-May high and that we are approaching a seasonally weak period for global demand.
That fact is also evident in the low amount of cancelled tonnage in the system—just 3.5% after Monday’s net movement of 900t to the open tonnage category as a result of “reverse” cancellations at Singapore and Gwangyang.
Most of that cancelled metal is concentrated on just two locations—Trieste with 12,000t and Singapore with 5,450t—and together they account for 60% of cancelled warrants.
At the moment neither location is signalling anything other than a continuation of the modest daily departures that are currently taking place. With low cancelled tonnage elsewhere, it’s hard to see any sustained pick-up in daily draw rates any time soon. That leaves the headline figure very sensitive to arrival rates as we go forwards.
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